CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-01-30T16:24:00-CME-001)

Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Feb 01 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1 flare from Region 1968
(N10E29, Eai/beta-gamma) at 31/1542 UTC. The flare was accompanied by
dimming in SDO/AIA 193 imagery between 31/1535-1612 UTC to the southeast
of the region and between 31/1624-1705 UTC north of the region. A
coronal mass ejection (CME) was visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery emerging from the southeast at approximately 31/1602 UTC
followed by a second eruption to the northeast at 31/1624 UTC. 
Preliminary analysis suggested the eruption to the northeast was moving
at approximately 400-500 km/s. Further analysis and modeling will be
undertaken once sufficient coronagraph imagery becomes available. 
Consolidation and flux emergence was evident in the intermediate portion
of Region 1967 (S14E29, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) while Region 1968 grew
slightly and developed a beta-gamma configuration.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-Minor to R2-Moderate) with a
slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-strong) during the period (01-03
Feb).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels with a chance for moderate levels for the
forecast period (01-03 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background levels (below
S1-Minor), but the threat of a proton event will be increasing as Region
1967 crosses the central meridian.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at ACE was nominal. Speed at the ACE
spacecraft reached 376 km/s at 31/0319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
31/0404Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
31/0929Z.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels through
approximately mid day on Day 2 (02 Feb), when a glancing blow from
the 30 Jan CME is expected to enhance the solar wind.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (01 Feb). 
A glancing blow from the 30 Jan CME is expected to arrive around mid-day
on day 2 (02 Feb) causing unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor)
conditions. Three CME characterizations and WSA-Enlil model runs were
conducted. The run with the most westerly origin brought the CME in
late on 01 Feb, representing the earliest possible arrival. The run
with the lowest speed brought the CME in almost 24 hours later.
--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Feb 01 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 01-Feb 03 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 01-Feb 03 2014
 Feb 01 Feb 02 Feb 03
00-03UT 2 2 3 
03-06UT 1 1 4 
06-09UT 1 1 3 
09-12UT 1 5 (G1) 2 
12-15UT 1 4 2 
15-18UT 1 3 2 
18-21UT 2 3 2 
21-00UT 2 4 2 
Rationale: Unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels are expected on
day two (02 Feb) as a glancing blow from the 30 Jan CME is expected to
impact the geomagnetic field.

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